Mortgage fixes under 5% disappearing – should you lock in now, go for a tracker or wait?

We asked five mortgage brokers and financial experts for their views and have rounded up their answers below. If you need bespoke advice, speak with a broker.

What's been happening to fixed-rate mortgages?

• For homebuyers, the lowest two-year and five-year fixed rates on the open market are currently 4.78% and 4.95% respectively. In contrast, at this time last year (before the Iran conflict began), they were 3.87% and 3.98%, according to MoneySavingExpert.com (MSE) data.
  
  The below graph gives you a rough overview of how rates have changed over time (it features MSE data on first-time buyers at 80% LTV):

• Remortgage rates have also worsened over the same period, with two and five-year fixes now starting from 4.99% and 5.06% respectively. Around this time last year, the cheapest deals were 3.88% and 3.98% respectively, according to comparison service Moneyfacts.
  
  For a full view of the latest top rates – whether you're buying or remortgaging – see our Mortgage best-buy comparison tool. The table below gives an example of the current remortgage best buys:

What do mortgage experts have to say on the current market?

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at investment platform AJ Bell: "Rates have climbed significantly since the start of the Iran war. They've risen particularly quickly over the past few weeks, as hopes faded for a resolution. It's putting real pressure on affordability, which has significantly dampened demand for property at a time of year which usually sees buyers flock to the market."

Nicholas Mendes, mortgage expert at broker John Charcol: "Global instability is the main reason rates have risen this year. The conflict in the Middle East and disruption to Russian energy supplies have pushed oil, gas and fuel prices higher. Higher energy costs have pushed UK inflation back above 3%, and the Bank of England expects it to rise above 4% early next year, which is why markets have priced in rate rises."

How does the base rate affect the deals on offer?

The Bank of England's base rate, which is used by the central bank to charge other banks and lenders when they borrow money, is currently at 3.75% following a SIXTH consecutive hold last month (September 2026). The next decision on the base rate is due on Thursday 5 November.

Nicholas Mendes, mortgage expert at broker John Charcol: "Fixed rates are priced on what markets expect the base rate to do over the next two to five years – not where it is today. Markets expect it to rise from 3.75% to around 4.75% by the middle of next year, and those expected increases are already built into today's fixed rates.

"If the Bank of England raises rates as expected, fixed rates may not move much further. If it raises rates faster or further than expected, fixed rates would rise. And if it holds or signals fewer increases, fixed rates could fall. Borrowers on tracker and standard variable rates are affected differently, as their payments rise or fall directly with each change in the rate."

What's likely to happen to fixed deals in the short term?

Kate Fuller, adviser at Mortgage Advice Bureau: "For the next couple of weeks, I am expecting fixed deals to stay fairly steady. As we get closer to the next base rate announcement, we might see a slight uptick in rates if that is looking to increase.

"However, rates are so susceptible to outside pressure it is difficult to really predict – no one is expecting them to really reduce in the short term though, and that includes the predictions into next year at the moment."

David Hollingworth, mortgage expert at broker L&C Mortgages: "Borrowers probably need to prepare themselves for fixed rates to remain at the current more elevated levels in the short term.

"As we know, that can change quickly depending on what happens here and across the globe, which could force further increases or bring a more positive outlook. Many borrowers are therefore likely to plan for the worst and hope for the best."

So, is right now a good time to fix my mortgage?

Kate Fuller, adviser at Mortgage Advice Bureau: "If your current rate is ending, then taking a new mortgage product is always better than sitting on variable rate. Fixing is still a good idea for those that cannot absorb any further increases to rates, and also those who just don't want the anxiety of not knowing what their rate might be next month."

Aaron Strutt, mortgage expert at broker Trinity Financial: "It is not the best time, but there have been worse times. Fixes are higher, but they are not shockingly high."

David Hollingworth, mortgage expert at broker L&C Mortgages: "Borrowers need to consider what the best type of deal for their circumstances will be. With so much uncertainty and other costs like utilities rising, many borrowers will still like the budgeting certainty that a fixed rate offers. When other costs are rising, knowing how much the mortgage payment will be each month can help give a degree of stability.

"As we can't be sure where rates will head, those that want a fixed deal may prefer to secure a rate sooner and protect against the possibility of further increases to mortgage rates. They can then review before they complete and switch to a better rate if the market has eased back down."

If I want to fix now, how long should I fix for?

David Hollingworth, mortgage expert at broker L&C Mortgages: "This question is one reserved for those with the benefit of a crystal ball, unfortunately. We tend to see the biggest split between those opting for two-year and five-year fixes, although it's possible to lock in for much longer than that too. Rates are quite similar, so it all comes down to what people think could happen next.

"There are forecasts that interest rates could rise but then come back down in the not too distant future. Borrowers may therefore prefer a shorter-term product as it would allow them to review in a couple of years and hopefully take advantage of lower interest rates then.

"However there's no guarantee that is how things pan out and rates may be similar or even higher. Those worried about the possibility of a worsening market or just preferring to know where they stand for longer, may therefore still be opting for the longer term security of a five-year fix."

Kate Fuller, adviser at Mortgage Advice Bureau: "This largely depends on your attitude to risk. If you prefer certainty, then a longer-term fix can work for you. If you would rather take a risk on rates reducing, then a shorter fix can work.

"I often ask my clients to think about how they would feel in two years if rates had gone up, or how they would feel if we did a five-year and rates reduced, and we couldn't take advantage without paying a penalty. Unfortunately, we will never know which is the right call until we get to the end of the product!"

Is it worth considering a tracker instead of a fix?

Kate Fuller, adviser at Mortgage Advice Bureau: "Potentially yes – we are seeing trackers sitting around 0.75% points to 1% point lower than comparable fixed rates right now, so there is quite a bit of movement in the base rate that could be absorbed before we are at the fixed rate levels.

"However, you have to be comfortable that the payments could just increase next month, so you won't have certainty of your payments. If you have little flex in your budget, then it's not always a great idea."

Nicholas Mendes, mortgage expert at broker John Charcol: "Because fixed rates already include the rate rises markets expect, a tracker can start at a lower rate than a comparable fix, depending on the margin. Many trackers also come without early repayment charges, so borrowers can switch to a fixed rate later if the outlook improves.

"The risk sits entirely with the borrower, and if the base rate rises in line with market expectations, payments would increase with each rise. Anyone considering a tracker needs to be confident they could afford their payments if the base rate were a full percentage point higher."

David Hollingworth, mortgage expert at broker L&C Mortgages: "More borrowers are looking at trackers as a possible option. The fact that the base rate hasn't moved at all yet means that the initial rate is substantially lower than a corresponding fixed rate. If interest rates do start to climb as many expect then the rate will start to rise and monthly payments will increase.

"If rate increases are slow and shallow, then the tracker may still look a good choice. But we just don't know what will happen and if interest rate rises pick up pace, it could push payments to uncomfortable levels. It therefore usually makes more sense for those with more disposable income, that are able and prepared to deal with the fluctuation in payments as interest rates move.

"Trackers are more widely available without any early repayment charges, so some may use a tracker as a holding position, hoping that they can later switch to a fix if rates improve."