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Get off the Pants Cap...

Confirmed: Energy Price Cap to RISE 2% in October - but you can lock in a 15% DROP today via the cheapest fix (& peace of mind your rate won't rise for another year)

Sadly, as expected, Ofgem this morning confirmed what we've long warned you about. The Energy Price Cap, which changes every three months, will rise by 2% from 1 October (slightly more than had been predicted). This dictates what 65% of households in Eng, Scot & Wales will pay for energy.

Compare this to the cheapest fixes on the market today, which are up to 15% below the current Cap (around £250/yr cheaper than a typical bill), and you can see why we call it a Pants Cap. If you're on it, you can FIX NOW to lock in a price considerably cheaper than both the current Cap AND October's Cap.

Let us take you through it step by step...

1. Unsure if you're on the Price Cap? You likely are. If you live in Eng, Scot or Wales (see N. Ireland help), unless you're on a fix or special tariff, you're almost certainly one of the two-thirds of homes on a Price Capped tariff. The Cap applies to all firms' standard consumer tariffs - the default one you're on if you've never changed, or not switched since your fix ended. And while it's called a Cap, in reality almost all firms price to the max. Here are some common ones...

2. Exactly what is the new Price Cap? Remember, there's no total cap on what you pay, the Cap limits the daily standing charge and unit rates firms can charge, so use more and you pay more.

Below, we've the new average Direct Debit rates, but the Cap varies by region and payment method (see the region-by-region caps). We're working on updating our 'What will I pay from October?' calc, which'll work out your new energy costs if you stay on the Cap.

To give you a scale, for a home on Ofgem's 'typical use' (a nonsense measure), the new annualised rate from October is £1,755/yr - that's £35 more than the current £1,720/yr. Though this rate changes again in January.

Lower users harder hit by the Cap... While half this rise is due to wholesale costs increasing slightly on average over the assessment period, the rest is due to 'network and policy costs' increases, and they are lumped into the standing charge - the daily rate you pay.

To put it in context, if it stayed at this level over a year, you'd pay a horrific £320 a year (on average for Direct Debit) just for having the facility of gas or electricity, even if you didn't use it. 

That means lower users will be disproportionately hit, with some facing effective rises of 5% or more. Yet perversely, higher users gain, as the rate for each unit of gas you use is being cut. So high users who use a lot of gas may see a rise of just 1%ish.

That is a moral hazard and something we've long campaigned on. There are plans for a low or no standing charge option to be in place by the start of next year, but we're still awaiting confirmation. Very low user? See £50 off standing charges tariffs.

3. LOCK IN at up to 15% LESS than today's Price Cap, saving immediately (it's 17% less than Oct's). A fixed tariff is where you lock in a rate for a set time, giving you the boon of certainty, but at the moment, the best are also significantly cheaper than the current Cap and October's new Cap.

The new Price Cap will only last three months, as all Caps do. For what's expected to happen beyond that, see Price Cap predictions below.

Your cheapest depends on your region and usage level.
Use our whole-of-market by default Cheap Energy Club comparison to find your winner.

Though remember, comparison sites (including our Cheap Energy Club) will currently show your savings compared to the current Price Cap, as firms' October Price Cap tariffs aren't published yet. That means savings will likely be slightly more favourable from October.

All deals below are available to new AND existing customers.

Q. Can I just grab my existing provider's fix? Yes, but this is about getting a cheap fix - be careful not to lock in at a high price. Use the Cheap Energy Club comparison to show how your provider's fix compares to the cheapest - if it's not too far away, then go for it.

Q. What is 'MSE cashback'? Some providers pay energy comparison sites to facilitate the switch (you still get the same price as going direct). Yet unlike other sites, we don't default to hiding tariffs that don't pay. Instead, we show them all, but when we get paid to switch you, we give you a chunk of it as cashback, so those that pay us are relatively cheaper for you, so it's likely more people will switch to them. Win-win.

If you're a low user, bear in mind MSE cashback can boost savings even more, as it'll make up a higher proportion of your bill - we factor the cashback into your savings on Cheap Energy Club so you can see.

Q. Is getting a longer fix than these worth it? Well, it gives you price certainty for longer, and means you needn't switch as frequently. Yet no price predictions go further than about a year ahead, as the market is so volatile, so we're blind as to whether it's a good deal. Up to 18mths seems reasonable - longer than that and they can sometimes cost more and most have bigger early exit penalties. So it's really only for those who truly value certainty.

4. If current predictions are right, these cheap fixes will substantially undercut the Price Cap for the next 12 months (though nothing's certain). The Price Cap is calculated based mainly on average wholesale costs - those energy retailers pay - over the three-month assessment period (we're already a week into that for the January 2026 Cap).

After October's rise, most analysts are now predicting the Price Cap will come down slightly in January (down 3%-ish), then rise again in April (up 5%-ish). So if the predictions are right, if you stay on a Price Capped tariff, over the next year you'll be paying roughly 1% more than you are now.

Of course, the further out you go, the more predictions turn into crystal ball-gazing - and they do change regularly. So there is always a chance the predictions are wrong and things will get much cheaper. But we suggest you can only act based on what the common predictions are right now.

Switch to a fix and your energy use immediately costs less, and will continue to do so until 31 Dec 2025 at the very least. Yet the extremely strong likelihood is you'll continue to save substantially after that too.

For it not to be worth getting a cheap fix right now, we'd need to see pretty immediate and monumental falls in wholesale rates - which no one is predicting. In fact, our analysis shows that at every point over the last 18mths, you'd have been better off getting the cheapest fix than being on the Cap.

Remember, you're always free to leave a fix... In the event things do move very substantially the other way and prices get much cheaper (either the Price Cap or the rate of new fixes), then you're always free to leave a fix. You may just need to pay the early exit penalties (unless you've 49 days or less left on your current fix). These have decreased in recent times to between £25 to £75/fuel for a 1yr fix, so just a few % of a typical annual bill (though a bigger relative hit for lower users).

If prices really dropped it'd be a reasonable option, and you'd have saved in the meantime.

5. £50 OFF standing charges tariff beats fixes for very low users. We've long campaigned on the moral hazard that are £300ish a year standing charges, the amount you pay just for the facility of having gas & electricity even if you don't use it. There are plans for a no standing charge Price Cap option sometime this winter, which should be announced next month. Right now though...

The EDF Simply Tracker tariff* tracks the Price Cap for around a year, but with £50/yr lower standing charges (£25/fuel). So for those who have very low usage (under roughly £80/mth) where the standing charges make up a larger portion of the bill, this can be a decent saving.

The best thing to do is use the Cheap Energy Club comparison, so you can see how it stacks up for you on the current Price Cap (and you get £20 MSE cashback if you switch via that).

6. Rapid change time-of-use tariffs can be substantially cheaper. These are tough to display via the traditional comparison site model (we're trying to work through how to do it for future, as this becomes more common), but here are the main ones...

• Octopus Energy Tracker & Agile. These are best for sophisticated users who get how energy markets work. With the Octopus Tracker tariff, rates change daily based on wholesale costs. It's been 30% cheaper than the Price Cap on average over the last year, but last winter, it had periods of being costlier (especially when wholesale rates are higher).
  
  The elec-only Octopus Agile tariff's rates change half-hourly, based on wholesale prices, so much so it can be free or even pay you to use energy at quiet times, but can be very costly at peak times. It's good for those who can nimbly shift their usage to take advantage of super-cheap times or who have battery storage.
  
  The Octopus tariffs are only available for existing customers, though to get 'em, you could first try switching to the Flexible Octopus Price Cap tariff, then once in, switch to one of these.

7. Got an electric vehicle? Check out a specific tariff. Several suppliers offer dedicated tariffs which let you get cheaper electricity overnight for charging your electric vehicle (EV). Full details of what's available in our EV tariffs guide, but in brief, there are two types:

• Add-on tariffs, where you can only charge your car at the cheaper rate. Ovo and Scottish Power offer these, so you can add EV charging to whichever of their tariffs you're currently on, and you'll get a cheap rate to charge your EV at any time. All other electrical use in your home will be charged at your existing tariff rates. So if you can get a decent fixed tariff from these firms, the fact you can charge your EV even cheaper is a boon.
  
  
• Two-rate tariffs giving you cheaper elec overnight. Most EV tariffs offer five to seven off-peak hours a day (typically from midnight to 5am) and charge around 5p to 10p per kilowatt hour of elec use (the current Price Cap rate is 25p to 29p), though peak rates can sometimes go above the Price Cap rate. The benefit here is if you've other appliances that you can use overnight, they'll cost less too.
  

8. Can you cut bills by cutting your use? Obviously, cutting use cuts bills, so we've some detailed guides that can help:

- 70+ ways to save energy includes a mix of hardcore savings and some thrifty crowd-sourced tips. From cutting your boiler flowrate to tactical curtains, getting the right freezer temp and more.
- Energy mythbusting covers less clear-cut issues, such as: 'Is it expensive to run an electric fan?'

9. Are solar panels worth it? As well as helping you save on energy bills, solar panels can earn you cash - but they can cost an average of £6,100 (and much more if you're getting battery storage too). But if they're right for you, we've a way to get up to £550 off. See our Solar panels - are they worth it? guide. 

Already got panels? Compare export tariffs to find the best rates.

10. What to do if you're struggling to pay. It's always worth talking to your energy firm. Be polite and straight with it, and make sure you explain if you're vulnerable. There can be hardship & debt grants from energy suppliers. For far more guidance, see our full What to do if you're struggling to pay energy bills guide.

11. More pensioners will get the Winter Fuel Payment this winter. Winter Fuel Payments, a tax-free payment of up to £300, which last year was restricted to those on certain benefits, will be made to ALL pensioners to help with energy bills this winter. Yet if you earn over £35,000/yr, the payment you get will be clawed back. If you know you'll earn more, you can opt out by 15 Sept to avoid this.

12. There's no Price Cap in Northern Ireland. You're on a different energy system with different firms to the above. It's worth taking five minutes to go through the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland's energy comparison, or our Cheap Northern Ireland electricity guide.

13. Some 'multi-rate' (eg, Economy 7) electric meters are set to stop working soon. If you've an old 'Radio Teleswitch Service' meter, you need to get it replaced ASAP. See how to check whether you have one & what to do next.