Last year at the end of the second week of December, Morrisons ran a litre of Baileys for £9 promotion. And a cracking deal it was too.
This year and last year we’ve published the Christmas Deals Predictor on the site and I do a similar ‘Festive Forecaster’ on my TV show too (watch it here). This is a prediction of the Christmas deals that will come up this year based on firms’ previous offers. The idea is to help people plan to try and pinpoint a good time to buy.
As you’ll read or watch, it’s very clearly a bit of a crystal ball – it’s all about predictions – nothing is guaranteed. Indeed last year we had a 75% success rate, and it’s similar this year (as I state in the predictor and on my programme).
Sadly, it seems Morrisons isn’t doing a Baileys deal this year (or at least it hasn’t so far); a pity, but of course, it’s entitled not to. Yet I’ve had a small, but not insignificant, number of people writing something like this to me…
“I watched Martin Lewis’s programme the other day and he said on the 11th December that Morrisons was doing a deal for £9 for a litre bottle of Baileys.
I have just returned from Morrisons and it hasn’t got a clue what the offer was about.
Please advise me why Martin Lewis advertised this?
I will not trust what he says again.”
Now I’m not sure why it’s the Baileys that has hit the Zeitgeist, it’s not the first thing the forecaster will be wrong on, nor is it the last. I am genuinely sorry we’re not 100% right on predictions, but we don’t expect to be – sometimes the crystal ball gets a bit cloudy.
I do hope people realise that a forecast, even if based on detailed research, is just that. And I very carefully use the word “predict” all the way through it.