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Archive for November, 2008

Recession’ll end soon: The joy of maths

In the pre-budget speech, Alastair Darling predicted a deep but short recession, ending next year. This made me think what a joy maths is for political spin. Remember technically a recession is “two successive quarters of negative growth (shrinking)”. Let me use an example.

What recession ending really means…

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) basically means the size of the economy, for ease of numbers lets imagine…

UK GDP = £1,000 billion (it’s actually bigger)

Recession then means two quarters of shrinking economy. We know it’s deep so let’s now imagine the economy contracts by 1% a quarter (3 months):

After quarter 1: UK GDP = £990 billion
After quarter 2: UK GDP = £980 billion
After quarter 3: UK GDP = £970 billion
After quarter 4: UK GDP = £961 billion

So a year on we’ve seen the economy shrink by £39bn or 3.9% in a year. Now imagine after the next quarter the economy now jumps to £962 billion, still massively smaller than it was when the recession started. Yet as this is growth of 0.1% the recession is technically over. More so technically even if the economy then shrunk again the next quarter we wouldn’t be in recession because two negative quarters are required.

So when you hear politicians talk about the end of the recession, they may not be talking common parlance. It doesn’t mean things have gone back to how they were. It simply means things have stopped getting any worse.

Comment and Discuss

Mental Health and Debt Guide

In a past blog ‘Mental Health and Debt‘ I wrote about our plans to produce a free guide to help individuals, families and carers. Just a quick update on it.

I had hired a couple of high level psychiatrists to write the mental health side of the guide, however after the first draft, unfortunately nothing came back. And we’ve now sadly been told they don’t feel able to complete it. This is a real shame, both as it’s delayed the project substantially and because this is something so important.

So I’m changing the way we’re going to do it. We’re going to take the writing of the guide in-house and work with the mental health charities for more information on that side. Plus I want MoneySaving mental health caseworkers to feedback with their stories and anecdotes on the practical issues.

As I’ve written before this is a project I’m very passionate about. The problem is vast, a disproportionate number of those with mental health problems are in debt. A disproportionate number of those in debt crisis have mental health problems.

It’s my hope we’ll have the guide up and running in early 2009.

Comment and Discuss

Should this site be closed for the recession?

Recession is coming, and I’m conscious many sensible MoneySaving strategies run counter to the government’s aim of stimulating the economy. The other day a friend, tongue in cheek, joked with me that for the greater good the site should be shut to prevent sensible spending info getting out there…

What the government wants us to do.

Recession is about economic shrinkage, so the aim is to boost the money in the economy. The two traditional ways of doing this are being followed.

  • Interest Rate Cuts. In a loosening of monetary policy, interest rates are cut. This both disincentives saving as it doesn’t pay as well, and decreases the cost of borrowing, in the hope businesses will borrow more to invest; and those with existing debts will have more cash to spend.
  • Tax cuts. Then there’s the good old fashioned Keynesian fiscal stimulus, in other words putting more money in peoples’ pockets so they’ll spend it. This afternoon we’re going to hear the pre-budget report, which in one way or another will lower taxes or increase tax credits, especially towards the lower end of the earnings spectrum.

What MoneySaving says…

Yet the messages I give in my MoneySaving work tend to run counter to this aim. Here are three quick examples:

  • Use the rate cut mortgage savings to overpay your home loan.

    Mortgages and house prices are still on the tips of many peoples’ tongues. One of the new worries is the Evaporating Equity trap (the link takes you to a recent weekly email where I explain it). As part of how to beat it I suggest…

    ACT NOW before the rate cut hits. One option that’ll contribute to keeping the LTV as low as possible is utilising last week’s rate cut. Unless you’re on a fixed deal, your monthly repayments will drop by £100-£120 per £100,000 of mortgage.

    Thus if you’ve no credit card debt or overdraft & some emergency cash saved up, then don’t get used to new extra cash, start putting it (and any spare cash) towards overpaying. If the lender doesn’t allow that, save the extra cash, and at remortgage time repay some debt so you’ll need to borrow less. This will help creep the LTV down.”

    This is exactly the opposite of what the government wants people to do with its rate cuts.

  • Don’t buy unnecessary presents this Christmas…

    This week I’m launching the no unnecessary presents pact campaign. Again, while the aim’s right for individuals, it’s the last thing the UK’s retailers will want.

  • Clear your debts…

    One of my main messages in the Recession Proof your finances guide is to clear your debts and save, yet again doing so takes more money out of the economy.

Of course this site does look at bargains and deals and restaurant vouchers too; all of which are enablers for people to go out. Though in many ways that’s about doing what you do for less rather than doing it more.

The Recession Juxtaposition…

I suspect this conflict is just the start of what’s likely to become a wider political juxtaposition. A prime cause of the mess we’re in is irresponsible lending, a lack of debt education, and some spending the equity in their homes in the belief house prices are a one-way bet.

In the long run, prudence, education and a return to balanced budgets are the cure. Yet in the short run to help the economy we need some of these less sensible attitudes to continue – people to continue to play their role in our consumer society – and to spend. How to square this circle will be a great debate.

Yet to personalise this, I’ve a more immediate question of what angle and role I should take in my work.

And quite simply, I don’t believe anything should change. This site’s core remit is to unashamedly think of the individual consumer and provide info to help them to make rational personal choices. For years there’ve been lobby groups for companies, businesses, economic policy forums. When I started the site one of my main sound bites was:

“We live in an adversarial consumer society. A company’s job is to screw us for cash, our job is to stop them. There’s nothing wrong with that, the problem is we’re out gunned. Companies spend billions on advertising, marketing and teaching their staff to sell… we don’t get any buyers training… I hope MoneySaving will help change that”

And even with such a huge transition in the economic climate, I still think that applies. Admittedly with nearly 7m monthly users and 2.8m getting the email each week this site now has a wider societal role, and I need to be aware and wary of its impact, but the initial policy must stand.

Comment and Discuss

Nice to see a politician listening

I wrote in my ‘getting political’ blog a few weeks ago about how I’d had a half hour phone chat with Nick Clegg, the leader of the Lib Dems, about debt policy. I’ve often berated politicians for knee-jerk unpractical solutions that bear little resemblance to the realities people face.

So I was rather pleased today to see that the Lib Dems are now calling for proper financial education in Schools. I did perhaps over-rant about this in my conversation with Nick, but I think the door was already wide open.

I could nit-pick and say I don’t think it should be part of the maths curriculum, but standalone, and should go further than financial literacy: it should be consumer education. Yet either way, to have a political party willing to commit to it in the curriculum is great.

The Full Lib Dem press release is below. And for anyone interested in financial education see the full Teen Cash Class guide.

Comment and discuss

Young people must be taught financial literacy to tackle Britain’s debt addiction – Clegg

Financial literacy must become a comprehensive part of the maths curriculum to tackle Britain’s addiction to debt, Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg will say today.

Speaking this afternoon to a Youth Parliament event in central London, Nick Clegg will warn the audience of young people that total personal debt has risen by £1 trillion since Labour came to power, with debt repayments equating to £3000 per second.

He will warn them that Britain is in danger of mortgaging their future, and that unless we act now, it will be their generation which suffers from the legacy of debt.

Liberal Democrat plans to address Britain’s personal debt problem also include:

  • Encouraging the BBC immediately to launch a campaign of public education through all its media channels, directing people to the appropriate advice and information to manage their finances.
  • A comprehensive network of free financial advice centres, funded 50-50 between the banks and the Government, to ensure everyone has access to impartial information and advice regarding extreme debt cases; issues around benefit and tax credits; pension advice and repossessions
  • A 4p cut in the basic rate of income tax, paid for by closing loopholes for the wealthy, in order to put money back in the pockets of struggling lower and middle income families

In his speech, Nick Clegg will say:

“One of the reasons why the economy’s in such a state at the moment is because of all this debt. It is our young who will inherit this legacy of debt.

“We’ve been addicted to debt, and now we’re having to go cold turkey.

“We must not hand on this addiction to you. Personal finance is enormously complicated – we can’t just imagine people will muddle through and magically understand APRs and SVRs and IVAs.

“As anyone hoping to go to University knows, our education system is very good at saddling students with debt – but rotten at educating them out of debt.”

Don’t send letters without adding your details!

To many readers of this blog, I suspect the note above will be a bit like stating the bleedin’ obvious. Yet recently I’ve heard from a number of different sources at banks, that when using this site’s template letters, that’s exactly what a small, but significant number of people do.

The letters are contained in a variety of guides including Bank Charges, Loan Insurance, Parking Fines, Section 75 and more, and over 6 million have been downloaded in total. The aim is simple, it’s a start point to send off your own letter which you should tailor to fit the specifics of the case. Yet I’ve recently learned some people do the following:

  • Literally print it unchanged and send. This is the more extreme and thankfully more rare problem. People print a template letter without adding any of their details so it still says “Your Name, Your Address” etc in the letter.
  • Add brief details and leave all the fields in. Much more common is to send the letters adding details but leaving all the [Your Address] bits in as well as adding in their address.

This is a slightly frustrating scenario. Not because I blame those who’ve done it, one of the main aims of the site and my work is to try and help people who find finance the most difficult, scary and confusing to deal with, never mind those in society who are illiterate and have been conned into dreadful financial products and are desperate for help.

I’m partly annoyed with myself for not realising it earlier, and adapting the templates so they are easier to understand and to help – I dread to think how many people have lost out by doing this.

Yet I also think it shows the dire need for some provision of direct help for people for whom doing it themselves is too difficult, without the need to resort to claims handlers who take a huge chunk of any reclaim. It’s simply impossible to do that on the web, as the web requires some pre-internet knowledge to start with.

As a quick solution I’ve added the box below to the top of all our template letters and tried to make the brackets we use more clear. It was a difficult thing to do so you don’t patronise the people who think its obvious, but help those who don’t. If anyone has any more ideas I’d welcome them.

Comment and Discuss.

IMPORTANT!
PLEASE READ THEN DELETE THIS BOX

This is a template letter for guidance. You need to add your details and where appropriate change the letter to suit your particular circumstances.

Once you’ve made changes, always print it out and read through to check it makes sense to the recipient.

ACTION POINTS

[BLUE BRACKETS]: Put your specific info here, then delete the instructions (and change the text colour)

[RED BRACKETS]: Just for info, after you’ve read delete

Is Westfield going to be a white elephant?

A mammoth new shopping centre has opened near MSE Towers in Shepherds Bush. You’ll have probably seen the furore about Westfield’s opening on the news, it’s apparently the third biggest in Europe and had the bad luck of opening just after all the nasty financial news hit.

Inside it’s enormous, with high ceilings, huge shops and an upmarket range. As an example, rather than McDonalds and KFC the food court has Croque Garcon, Ooze Risotteria and Tiffinbites. The opening week was huge; 100,000 people went on the first Saturday, filling out even its massive space.

This town, is coming like a ghost town.

Yet yesterday the MSF had some time and popped in on Monday afternoon. She went to one of the large department stores (I’ll not say which to protect the person mentioned in a minute’s job). There wasn’t another soul in the whole store. As she walked through the parfumerie, she turned down a trial of the first type, then had another store attendant literally run to chase her, through the barren concessions, to offer a squirt of the perfume.

Then, when asking directions to a department she was told “I’ll take you there” and someone escorted her up the escalators. As she went up, the shop assistant said to her “it’s s**t here, always empty, no customers, nothing to do and really boring. It’s not like the bullring or the Trafford centre, they’re always busy, this is the worst place I’ve ever worked.”

Comment and Discuss.

The Greater Fool Theory: Does it apply to house purchases in the last couple of years?

There’s a stock market theory I remember talking about during the 2000-1 dot com boom, (I can’t remember who first told me a version of it) when I was on Simply Money TV. Over the last couple of years or so I’ve mentioned it when chatting about house prices to various friends, so I thought it worth a muse here.

It’s called the “Greater Fool” theory, and it happens when people buy assets at a value higher than they can realistically justify, in the belief that the market will continue to rise.

House Price Rises

Over the past five years, I’ve lost track of how many people I’ve heard say something akin to “I can’t believe I have to pay £230,000 for a one bedroom flat in the centre of XXXXXX, it’s ridiculous, but that’s the market.”

Effectively, this is buying a property where you simply feel the price isn’t justified, but as it’s the price, you go for it anyway on the assumption of continued rising values.

The Greater Fool Theory

What the theory does is crystallise the logic being used in the buying price. It says:

I believe the current price is too high, but I’m buying it in the hope a ‘greater fool than me’ will be willing to pay even more for it in the future.

The key GF theory hope is that you’re not the “Last Fool”. If you are, and buy just before the market crashes, you end up losing horribly.

Sadly all those who bought a home between six and eighteen months ago, thinking they’d only keep it for a couple of years, may be the ones to qualify in the recent house market bubble.

That isn’t an implied criticism. The same could’ve happened to those who bought the year or two or three before. The house price crash fraternity have been calling the market down for a good number of years and those who bought in the early days are still heavily in profit.

The key problem here is that knowing EXACTLY when the market will turn is difficult. It’s the reason why I’ve always said I expected house prices to crash and houses were overvalued, but I had no clue as to when… 1 year, 3, 5, 50? (e.g. see Squaring the house price circle blog, Property porn experts: where are you? blog, The Four Horsemen of the financial Apocalypse blog). My conclusion was that for those who are risk averse, the key defences are to ensure you don’t overstretch yourself when getting a property, buy for the longer term, and check you can easily cover the mortgage even if interest rates were to rise by three percentage points.

Now my hope is there aren’t too many ‘last fools’ who will really hurt; affordability is still a crucial criteria. While it’s galling and ugly to be locked into a mortgage for a property that is decreasing in value, or worse moving into negative equity, affordability at least prevents repossession (if you are facing repossession see the Debt Help guide).

So does the greater fool theory apply to residential property?

Comment and discuss

The Lord Mayor, PM, Financial Literacy & Men In Breeches.

Last night, I was lucky enough to be invited to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet at the Guildhall. Filled with the political and financial elite, dressed up to the tens, it was a fascinating evening, and like slipping back into history at points. It’s a very formal do to celebrate the appointment of the new Lord Mayor (the 681st) and end of the last one’s term.

Financial Literacy

I was delighted to hear in his speech, that the new Lord Mayor of the City of London (not Boris, he’s the Mayor of London, which is different) has chosen financial literacy as his theme. As well as working with City employees, they want to send businesspeople into schools to help with financial literacy. A worthy aim, and good the PM was there to listen.

Having given a speech for the National Association of Credit Unions, who are also doing great work on financial education, the other day, and being bombarded by others with the same valiant aim via The MSE Charity – it’s incredible how many people are trying to push the same agenda. Yet even more astounding is the fact that while everyone recognises how worthwhile it is, blinkered politicians still DON’T introduce compulsory financial education, or even commit to introducing it in schools.

As a nation we educate our youth into debt when they go to University, but never about debt. This, combined with the growth of home ownership so people get mortgages, and easy access to credit, has helped rid debt of its stigma. Yet to allow this to happen without educating people on the hows and whys of borrowing is criminal. Not much surprise then we’re second to the USA in the world cup of domestic debt – and both economies are in trouble.

Men in breeches

The invite to the dinner was very specifically White Tie, which as I learned means the equivalent of a morning suit at night (see the pic at the end). Yet the Lord Mayor and Aldermen dress in breeches, plus there are guards in (I’m guessing) 17th century pikemen’s uniforms, and men in gold braid playing trumpets before each toast and announcing special arrivals.

Passing the historic guards, I walked into the grand reception hall to find I was on the list of people being announced. After “Mr. Martin Lewis” was called out, I did the shaking hands thing with the Lord Mayor and Lady Mayoress, then realised I had half an hour before dinner and didn’t know a soul! Not only that, but the average age was considerably higher than my own mere 36 years, so I felt a bit like a little boy.

Thus, I resorted to that ‘walking round as if you’re searching for someone specific thing’ to pass the time and not look too conspicuous. In the end a kindly Lady (literally a ‘Lady’ I believe) took pity and started talking to me. Turns out she’s a CAB volunteer and knew who I was.

An amazing venue, like dining in the 17th Century

As you enter the Guildhall, you’re transported back in time. There are towering stone arches high overhead, large marble statues at the sides, decorated crests adorning the ceiling, and huge rows of tables with solid gold jugs arranged on each one.

I was sat between one of the Lord Mayor’s chaplains, and a Major who is the Crown Equerry (in charge of the Queen’s horses). Opposite was the LM’s Chief of Operations, and the Major & Reverend’s wives. Down the row was a man who’d been on the Executive of the National Union of Students when I’d been president of my university, meaning a chat about old times ensued.

Quite soon, the conversation was flowing, and I relaxed for the first time in the evening. The Major’s life is fascinating; he left the army and now effectively manages the Queens non-racing horses, a big job with a large staff. Mrs Major, who works for a Children’s Charity, is on this site most days (if you’re reading this, hello). The chaplain was discussing the interrelation of money and theology and he and his wife were firm supporters of the Citizens’ Wage concept.

Then it was time for the speeches. The shock intro is huge timpani drums being bashed large and loud, followed by the two quartets of military trumpeters on either side blasting out. Curiously, in each of the trumpeter foursomes, one is in charge, and dictates the notes and timing to the others by moving his trumpet up and down while playing. They preceded every speech and every toast. Plus there’s a slow clap as the livery officers parade round the room. I didn’t realise such formality still existed.

The Lord Mayor spoke, then the PM, the Archibishop of Canturbury, the Late Lord Mayor (no he’s not dead, that’s what they call last year’s; after that he becomes the ex-Lord Mayor) and finally the Lord Chancellor (Jack Straw). It was interesting to hear the oratory in person. In many ways the Archbishop trumpted the lot, coming across both witty and profound. Gordon Brown was more impressive in the flesh than I’d expected; perhaps buoyed by his recent poll upsurge.

Martin Lewis - Slightly embarassed in mse towers before the banquet
Slightly embarassed in mse towers before the banquet

Comment and Discuss

Lord Mayor’s Dinner…

I’ve been invited to the Lord Mayor’s dinner on Monday night. It’s about financial literacy, and the PM’s making a speech. All good except I just found out it is WHITE tie. Now black tie I can cope with, but WHITE tie, tops and tails… oh dear!

Comment and Discuss

Poised to throw Knickers… (incriminating pics)

I had one of those surreal moments on Wednesday night: a cross-over between my day job and my telly job. During the MoneySaving News on It Pays To Watch, towards the end I like to throw in something a bit lighter. So we did a line on Knickerbox’s 70% off weekly online sale, repeating my note from the weekly e-mail about “Knickers coming down”.

The idea was someone would throw knickers at me, Tom Jones style. We had five new clean pairs and Charlie the floor manager was tasked with pelting me with them. Yet when he first tried, as he had to be a distance away standing behind the camera, the knickers just didn’t have the power in them to reach.

Eventually we discovered there was no option, but to have each one individually pinged at me like a catapult to get the right height and speed. However they all needed to come at the same time, so it was an “all hands on deck”. With production manager Tracey, Researcher Rachel, Charlie, Camerama Rich and assistant floor manager Seb all poised and ready (see pic below).

I had to read the news, even the serious stories with the knicker-bunch poised on the floor. Unfortunately, on the first try Rich was a bit premature and a pair was flung at me while I was talking about the decline in the premium bond intrest rate. Next retake, we made it. See the pics below.

Comment and discuss

Martin Lewis It Pays To Watch - Knickers shoot

Martin Lewis It Pays To Watch - Knickers shoot

Martin Lewis It Pays To Watch - Knickers shoot

Beverley Knight: Star sings Singstar

At dinner on Saturday night I sat next to soul star Beverley Knight MBE. The MSF and I were at the Cancer Research UK Charity Halloween Ball, a great and at times very moving event, and something with personal resonance for both of us.

Beverley’s a fascinating woman, and I really enjoyed chatting with her. When offered a big break early on, she put it on hold to finish her Theology degree. It’s a real juxtaposition with the speedy instant success that something like X-factor offers. And perhaps that’s what helps provide the longevity of her success, that and of course a seriously good voice.

Star sings Singstar…

Towards the end of the evening, the MSF had been dragged (in the best way) into a games room that was set up by Playstation. There we ended up with a group of about ten people, in a battle of the genders Abba songs Singstar contest (the men won!). For those who don’t know, it’s a karaoke game that maps how accurately you sing the song.

After that, on our way out we bumped into Beverley again and having had a couple of vodkas, I bravely asked if she’d come and sing on the Singstar game. She didn’t know what it was, but gamely agreed. For me this was a real test, not of her voice, which is self-evidentially a winner, but of the Singstar itself; is it really about quality of singing, or just knowing the game?

When she got in there I think she was a little taken aback, and I felt slightly guilty about having put her in such a position. But after finding an Abba song she knew, “The Winner Takes It All” (I think we’d done a few, and they’re merging in my memory), she sang against one of the Charity Ball’s committee.

Now the lady from the committee plays Singstar a lot and knows how to score on it, but without any offence meant, doesn’t have the talent, training and voice of someone like Beverley Knight. So it was an interesting contest.

And the winner is…

The final score was 4,500 points to 3,800…. to Beverley. It was a privilege to listen, and gradually as she sang, rather than the raucous event of singing beforehand, people ended up standing around and just listening. Interesting to watch how her vocal accuracy was measured by the Singstar, as it measured her as almost perfect throughout.

Comment and Discuss.

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